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    E M E R G E N C Y M A N A G E M E N T / P L A N N I N G
    N E W S L E T T E R
    Volume 1, Issue 4, November 29, 1993

    Moderator: David H. Kanecki, A.C.S., Bio. Sci., Assoc. VP Emer. Mgmt/Planning
    ================================================== ============================
    To obtain the newsletter or send information, please contact:
    David H. Kanecki, A.C.S., Bio. Sci.
    P.O. Box 26944
    Wauwatosa, WI 53226-0944

    I would like to thank the University of Wisconsin - Parkside in Keno-
    sha, Wisconsin for providing the electronic mail distribution facili-

    Contents of this Issue
    1. Thanksgiving -- The Role of a specific monitoring date

    2. Summary of papers submitted to the Emergency Management and Plan
    ning Conference, Part 2

    3. Thoughts on --- Key facts of Decision

    ================================================== ======================
    1. Thanksgiving -- The Role of a specific monitoring date
    By David H. Kanecki, A.C.S., Bio. Sci.
    Associate Vice President, Emergency Management/Planning-SCS

    In the United States, the last Thursday of November is Thanksgiv-
    ing. In this holiday, families give thanks for the current year. Also,
    families use this holiday to monitor what is needed for the upcoming

    In Emergency Management and Planning, it is important for indi-
    viduals to set up specific times to monitor ongoing activities and to
    determine what activities are needed for the future. To monitor an
    activity, one needs to determine what has changed. To determine what
    has changed, one needs to keep accurate and timely records. Finally,
    one needs to present this information in a format that allows one to
    observe a change. Finally, individuals need to correspond with each
    other so that they can monitor a system. Thus, organization and indi-
    vidualism are both required to do management and planning.

    2. Summary of papers submitted to the SCS Emergency Management and
    Planning conference, April 11-14, 1994, San Diego

    By David H. Kanecki, A.C.S., Bio. Sci.
    Associate Vice President, Emergency Management/Planning-SCS

    In one paper, the authors described an example on how simulation
    for emergency management and planning can be used to develop a plan
    for a city. In their model, the city has expanded to the outlying
    industrial areas. With this model, the authors can determine the
    effect of an action at a site. In addition, this simulation has been
    used to develop an instrument that can aid others.

    In another paper, a group of authors describe a route analysis
    simulation system. With this system, the authors can determine the
    expectation and adaptation of the driver when choosing a route. This

    system is made to work on large scale routes, freeways, and smaller
    scale routes, arterial routes. Thus, the system described is valuable
    to persons working a regional, county, or city system.

    The next paper describes a system to simulate dynamic demograph-
    ic, socioeconomic, and household behavior to analysis the travel
    demand management of an area. In this system, new forms of travel
    options can be added. This allows the authors to monitor the effect of
    population movement for an area. In addition, these additions can be
    modeled on a individual basis. Thus, this system allows a macro and
    micro analysis of the movement of a population or individual.

    In the three papers described, there were 14 individuals in-
    volved. Also, all three papers utilized neural networks and simulation
    to model a dynamic activity. In addition, all three papers model the
    effects of environmental planning as industrial; transportation grid;
    demographic, socioeconomic, and household factors to travel. Finally,
    all these system can be used on a regional to city level.

    To submit a paper or obtain information about the conference,
    please contact the Society for Computer Simulation:

    c/o Emergency Management, SMC '94
    P.O. Box 17900
    San Diego, CA 92177

    phone (619)-277-3888

    3. Thoughts on -- Key Facts of Decision
    By David H. Kanecki, A.C.S., Bio. Sci.
    Associate Vice President, Emergency Management/Planning-SCS

    From the Kanecki family writing, I would like to offer this
    thought on decision making.

    A decision is based on three elements: facts, assumed details,
    and uncontrollable elements. Good decision making in Emergency Manage-
    ment and Planning takes in the options of contingencies or uncertain-
    ties so that successful, timely, and orderly logistics management is